What might happen in China in 2016?

Millions of people being relocated from cities, fewer jobs, greater centralization, and more movie blockbusters are just some predictions for the year.

(Cited from McKinsey & Co. Article published by Gordon Orr, Jan. 2016.)

In debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional.

The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theaters has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the answer to this question and shaping your plans accordingly.

Many well-established secular trends in China will continue in 2016. The service economy’s expansion is perhaps most prominent among them. In this piece, as usual, I won’t spend much time on the most familiar things. Instead, I will highlight what I believe will become the more important and more visible trends in 2016, either because they are now accelerating to scale or a discontinuity may become a tipping point. (For a quick summary, see sidebar, “The China Orr-acle: Gordon’s predictions for 2016.”) I hope you find my ideas valuable.

  • The 13th five-year plan—few surprises
  • Fewer jobs, flatter incomes—and, potentially, less confidence
  • The maturing of investing: More options for Chinese investors and foreign investment managers
  • Manufacturing in China is changing, not disappearing
  • Agricultural imports are rising and rising
  • More centralization
  • Moving people at scale—the middle class, not peasants
  • Movies in China: $$$
  • China continues to go global, with the United Kingdom as a new focal point
  • Big business would embrace soccer in China

For the full article CLICK HERE.

 

 

International Celebration of the Lunar New Year

Celebrate the Year of the Ram! Come and join us for an International Celebration of the Lunar New Year hosted by the Greater Cincinnati Chinese Chamber of Commerce and their Young Professional Network (YPN.) Free food will be provided by Tiger Dumpling and Eli’s BBQ while it lasts along with cash bar and DJ.

Where:

Columbia Community Center
3900 Eastern Avenue
Cincinnati, OH 45226

When:

Wednesday February 18, 2015 from 7:00 PM to 10:00 PM EST

 

 Click Here for Event Registration & Details

Fall is Networking Season

Fall is a great time to get out after work and do some networking. It’s also great for learning about U.S.-China relations and Chinese investment in the Midwest. We have three events slated for fall so far, and we’ll probably see at least one more come up before the snow hits the ground in December. Here’s the lineup

CHINA Town Hall — Oct. 16 after work

Local Connections, National Relfections

We are teaming up with the National Committee on United States-China Relations Oct. 16 to offer a live teleconference on U.S.-China relations and our keynote speaker will be President Jimmy Carter.

The event will be from 6 to 8 pm at the Digitorium in Northern Kentucky University’s College of Informatics. You can click here to learn more and register.

We’ll have cocktails and hors d’oeuvres, followed by a local talk by China hand Michael McCune. Join us for a national discussion on U.S.-China relations.

Beer and Guanxi — October tentative

Good Food, Good People, Good Guanxi

Come join us at this free event from 6 to 8 pm at Rhinegeist for networking, games, food and drinks. Our YP Committee members are currently finding the appropriate date. Stay tuned for the release of that information.

Our goal is to build a community to join the movement for making Cincinnati a more international city. So, if you are looking to meet new people and discuss ways of making Cincinnati better, you won’t want to miss this event.

Cincinnati Checklist — Nov. 12 after work

A Discussion on Chinese Investment in Middle America

Miller Canfield and the Greater Cincinnati Chinese Chamber of Commerce will hold a discussion panel on Chinese investment in Middle America. You can register at this link or by clicking the button above.

The event will take place from 5:30 to 7:30 pm on Nov. 12. It will feature networking, hors d’oeuvres, and cocktails in the historic Chef’s Room of the Phoenix club in downtown Cincinnati.

The panelists —  Yanping Wang, Shusheng Wang, and Matthew Steele — have intimate knowledge of Fuyao Auto Glass as they have worked to implement their expected $250 million investment in Ohio, the largest by a Chinese company ever in our great state. Join us to learn about how this massive deal went down and what we can expect for the future of Chinese business in the region.