Millions of people being relocated from cities, fewer jobs, greater centralization, and more movie blockbusters are just some predictions for the year.
In debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional.
The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theaters has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the answer to this question and shaping your plans accordingly.
Many well-established secular trends in China will continue in 2016. The service economy’s expansion is perhaps most prominent among them. In this piece, as usual, I won’t spend much time on the most familiar things. Instead, I will highlight what I believe will become the more important and more visible trends in 2016, either because they are now accelerating to scale or a discontinuity may become a tipping point. (For a quick summary, see sidebar, “The China Orr-acle: Gordon’s predictions for 2016.”) I hope you find my ideas valuable.
- The 13th five-year plan—few surprises
- Fewer jobs, flatter incomes—and, potentially, less confidence
- The maturing of investing: More options for Chinese investors and foreign investment managers
- Manufacturing in China is changing, not disappearing
- Agricultural imports are rising and rising
- More centralization
- Moving people at scale—the middle class, not peasants
- Movies in China: $$$
- China continues to go global, with the United Kingdom as a new focal point
- Big business would embrace soccer in China
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A natural complement to signature Middlebury programs such as the Bread Loaf Writers’ Conference, the Language Schools, and the equally-renowned translation and interpretation degree programs at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS), the Bread Loaf Translators’ Conference aims to strengthen the visibility and access to high quality literary translations in the United States and to acknowledge that translators require the same training and skills as creative writers.
Following the success of the inaugural session in 2015, this year’s session is likely to fill quickly. We want to make sure you have the chance to submit an application should you wish to do so. Whether you’re an experienced translator looking for feedback on a new project or a beginner looking for ways to approach literary translation, the dynamic community and intimate setting of Bread Loaf are sure to inspire you.
The conference will incorporate the Bread Loaf Writers’ Conference model of small, focused, genre-based workshops coupled with lectures and classes focusing on the art of literary translation. Workshops will be limited to ten participants so that each manuscript will receive individual attention and careful critique. All participants will also meet individually with their workshop leader to amplify and refine what was said in the workshop itself.
This dynamic and focused week-long conference of workshops, classes, lectures, and readings is designed for both beginning and experienced literary translators, including:
- translators who want to improve their craft
- foreign language students who want to acquire skills in the art of translation
- teachers who want to bring the practice of literary translation into their classrooms
- writers who want to continue the age-old practice of assuming literary craft via translation and imitation
- anyone who would like to participate in the growing community of literary translators.
Acclaimed and award-winning translators Esther Allen, Geoffrey Brock, Karen Emmerich, Jennifer Grotz, and David Hinton will constitute the faculty during this second annual session. In addition to their literary accomplishments, each faculty member has been specifically chosen for his or her skill at guiding developing translators in a given genre.
APPLICATION & ACCEPTANCE
Applications to the conference will be accepted between November 1 and March 15. Acceptances will be made on a rolling basis and applicants will be notified whether they have been admitted approximately four to six weeks after they apply. With rolling admissions, those who apply early increase their chances of acceptance; therefore, we encourage you to apply early.
For application and more info CLICK HERE.
NOTE: Financial aid is available.
There is a $15 application fee.
Bread Loaf Translators’ Conference
Middlebury, VT 05753
On November 17, 2015, the DHL US ITAC and Americas Region Regulatory teams hosted visitors from the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S. to discuss trade facilitation between China and the United States.
Chinese Embassy representatives Hu Tianshu and Zhang Tong, along with members of the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce and the Greater Cincinnati Chinese Chamber of Commerce (GCCCC), met at CVG hub where discussions included overviews of the DHLE network, US import and export processes as well as challenges encountered by China companies and individuals doing business in the U.S.
U.S. Customs Border Protection (CBP) Assistant Area Director Eugene Matho and CVG Port Director Richard Gillespie joined for discussion on topics related to entry of merchandise both in the U.S. and China. The meeting concluded with a CVG hub tour. The spirit of the visit was one of learning about best practices, growth and cooperation.
PHOTO: From Left to Right – Photo Credit to Pat Rogers/ DHLE Americas, Process Improvement Manager
Front: Matt Robinson, Chief Business Development Officer, Indelac Controls, Inc., NKY Chamber member; Naashom Marx/VP NKY Chamber; Raymond Li Tung Luk/Green Energy Enterprise LLC, President, GCCCC member; Myriam Benalcazar/DHLE America Region, Customs Regulatory Manager
Back: Roger Ruan / DHLE U.S., China Program Manager; Phillip Poland / DHLE Americas Region, Director Customs & Regulatory Affairs; Zhang Tong/ Third Secretary, Embassy of the P.R. of China; Maritza Castro/ DHLE Americas Region, Head of Customs & Regulatory Affairs; Joanie Arias/DHLE VP CVG Hub; Hu Tianshu/ Counselor, Embassy of the P.R. of China; Amy Smith/DHLE U.S. Head of Customs; Alan Majchrzak / DHLE U.S., Director Brokerage Services;
Louisa So Fong / Board of Directors; Anita Haefner / DHLE U.S., Director Compliance; Board of Directors Greater Cincinnati Chinese Chamber (GCCCC); Michael Kou / Growth by Export, President, Board of Directors GCCCC
Washington – In an historic step for the protection of clean water, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army finalized the Clean Water Rule today to clearly protect from pollution and degredation the streams and wetlands that form the foundation of the nation’s water resources.
The rule ensures that waters protected under the Clean Water Act are more precisely defined and predictably determined, making permitting less costly, easier, and faster for businesses and industry. The rule is grounded in law and the latest science, and is shaped by public input. The rule does not create any new permitting requirements for agriculture and maintains all previous exemptions and exclusions.
“For the water in the rivers and lakes in our communities that flow to our drinking water to be clean, the streams and wetlands that feed them need to be clean too,” said EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy. “Protecting our water sources is a critical component of adapting to climate change impacts like drought, sea level rise, stronger storms, and warmer temperatures – which is why EPA and the Army have finalized the Clean Water Rule to protect these important waters, so we can strengthen our economy and provide certainty to American businesses.”
“Today’s rule marks the beginning of a new era in the history of the Clean Water Act,” said Assistant Secretary for the Army (Civil Works) Jo-Ellen Darcy. “This is a generational rule and completes another chapter in history of the Clean Water Act. This rule responds to the public’s demand for greater clarity, consistency, and predictability when making jurisdictional determinations. The result will be better public service nationwide.”
People need clean water for their health: About 117 million Americans – one in three people – get drinking water from streams that lacked clear protection before the Clean Water Rule. America’s cherished way of life depends on clean water, as healthy ecosystems provide wildlife habitat and places to fish, paddle, surf, and swim. Clean and reliable water is an economic driver, including for manufacturing, farming, tourism, recreation, and energy production. The health of our rivers, lakes, bays, and coastal waters are impacted by the streams and wetlands where they begin.
Protection for many of the nation’s streams and wetlands has been confusing, complex, and time-consuming as the result of Supreme Court decisions in 2001 and 2006. EPA and the Army are taking this action today to provide clarity on protections under the Clean Water Act after receiving requests for over a decade from members of Congress, state and local officials, industry, agriculture, environmental groups, scientists, and the public for a rulemaking.
In developing the rule, the agencies held more than 400 meetings with stakeholders across the country, reviewed over one million public comments, and listened carefully to perspectives from all sides. EPA and the Army also utilized the latest science, including a report summarizing more than 1,200 peer-reviewed, published scientific studies which showed that small streams and wetlands play an integral role in the health of larger downstream water bodies.
Climate change makes protection of water resources even more essential. Streams and wetlands provide many benefits to communities by trapping floodwaters, recharging groundwater supplies, filtering pollution, and providing habitat for fish and wildlife. Impacts from climate change like drought, sea level rise, stronger storms, and warmer temperatures threaten the quantity and quality of America’s water. Protecting streams and wetlands will improve our nation’s resilience to climate change.
Specifically, the Clean Water Rule:
- Clearly defines and protects tributaries that impact the health of downstream waters. The Clean Water Act protects navigable waterways and their tributaries. The rule says that a tributary must show physical features of flowing water – a bed, bank, and ordinary high water mark – to warrant protection. The rule provides protection for headwaters that have these features and science shows can have a significant connection to downstream waters.
- Provides certainty in how far safeguards extend to nearby waters. The rule protects waters that are next to rivers and lakes and their tributaries because science shows that they impact downstream waters. The rule sets boundaries on covering nearby waters for the first time that are physical and measurable.
- Protects the nation’s regional water treasures. Science shows that specific water features can function like a system and impact the health of downstream waters. The rule protects prairie potholes, Carolina and Delmarva bays, pocosins, western vernal pools in California, and Texas coastal prairie wetlands when they impact downstream waters.
- Focuses on streams, not ditches. The rule limits protection to ditches that are constructed out of streams or function like streams and can carry pollution downstream. So ditches that are not constructed in streams and that flow only when it rains are not covered.
- Maintains the status of waters within Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems. The rule does not change how those waters are treated and encourages the use of green infrastructure.
- Reduces the use of case-specific analysis of waters. Previously, almost any water could be put through a lengthy case-specific analysis, even if it would not be subject to the Clean Water Act. The rule significantly limits the use of case-specific analysis by creating clarity and certainty on protected waters and limiting the number of similarly situated water features.
A Clean Water Act permit is only needed if a water is going to be polluted or destroyed. The Clean Water Rule only protects the types of waters that have historically been covered under the Clean Water Act. It does not regulate most ditches and does not regulate groundwater, shallow subsurface flows, or tile drains. It does not make changes to current policies on irrigation or water transfers or apply to erosion in a field. The Clean Water Rule addresses the pollution and destruction of waterways – not land use or private property rights.
The rule protects clean water necessary for farming, ranching, and forestry and provides greater clarity and certainty to farmers about coverage of the Clean Water Act. Farms across America depend on clean and reliable water for livestock, crops, and irrigation. The final rule specifically recognizes the vital role that U.S. agriculture serves in providing food, fuel, and fiber at home and around the world. The rule does not create any new permitting requirements for America’s farmers. Activities like planting, harvesting, and moving livestock have long been exempt from Clean Water Act regulation, and the Clean Water Rule preserves those exemptions.
The Clean Water Rule will be effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.