Millions of people being relocated from cities, fewer jobs, greater centralization, and more movie blockbusters are just some predictions for the year.
In debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional.
The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theaters has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the answer to this question and shaping your plans accordingly.
Many well-established secular trends in China will continue in 2016. The service economy’s expansion is perhaps most prominent among them. In this piece, as usual, I won’t spend much time on the most familiar things. Instead, I will highlight what I believe will become the more important and more visible trends in 2016, either because they are now accelerating to scale or a discontinuity may become a tipping point. (For a quick summary, see sidebar, “The China Orr-acle: Gordon’s predictions for 2016.”) I hope you find my ideas valuable.
- The 13th five-year plan—few surprises
- Fewer jobs, flatter incomes—and, potentially, less confidence
- The maturing of investing: More options for Chinese investors and foreign investment managers
- Manufacturing in China is changing, not disappearing
- Agricultural imports are rising and rising
- More centralization
- Moving people at scale—the middle class, not peasants
- Movies in China: $$$
- China continues to go global, with the United Kingdom as a new focal point
- Big business would embrace soccer in China
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BEIJING, June 19 (Xinhua) — China has decided to give foreign investors greater freedom in the booming e-commerce industry by allowing them to fully own e-commerce companies in the country, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced Friday.
The MIIT said in a brief statement that it would open up the online data processing and transaction processing businesses to foreign investors.
The new policy will enable more foreign companies to compete with local firms, thereby driving the sector to higher standards, the MIIT said.
The move is an expansion of a pilot scheme launched in January in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone.
Currently, China’s lucrative e-commerce business is dominated by big homegrown firms. The e-commerce market hit 13.4 trillion yuan (2.2 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2014, and China is aiming to almost double the value of the sector in two years.
From Xinhua Net
Description: The Public Affairs Section (PAS) of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, China is pleased to announce an open competition for assistance awards through this Request for Applications (RFA). PAS invites U.S. post-secondary accredited institutions of higher learning (Public, Private, and State) and not-for-profit organizations subject to 501 (c) (3) of the tax code to submit proposals for the establishment of an American Cultural Center (ACC) through an existing partnership with a Chinese institution and/or comprehensive U.S. cultural-related programming at space provided by a Chinese partner institution as needed. PAS will award three grants up to US$100,000 per grant.
Agency Name: U.S. Mission to China
Tuesday, March 25, from 11:30 am to 1:30 pm the Chinese Chamber will hold its first business luncheon of the year. It’s the first part of a three-part seminar on China’s regulations and best practices, presented by Dezan Shira & Associates. You should register right now if you want to do some business networking and you’re free for lunch Tuesday. Keep reading for more information about our new member, Dezan Shira, and the location of Tuesday’s lunch.